Reply to: Note 385 posted by Impurifan If there was enough arb capital behind it it would've converged faster, and people would have actually lost less. Sadly the arbs either dropped the ball or did not have enough to cover margin, or everyone had problems locating the shares if what you say about ibkr is true. Perhaps the tide of bids was simply too great. Pre-hedging doesn't matter to XIV. Wrong NAV published could only be true if VIX futures settlements were incorrect. Technically it's closing IV. (Can calculate it yourself!) Should thoroughly understand product you are trading, especially if you want to arb it! Especially dangerous to arb something without full knowledge of contract specs. Other risks exist, of course. Certainly one would need experience, but the best academics can acquire it fairly quickly, judging from Simons (of Chern-Simons in topology) and Shaw. Of course, it would require more time than a side project. If there were more of them interested, markets might well become more efficient. That is not likely to happen though, given that the smartest people tend to be interested in other pursuits, with a few notable exceptions. ALSO A WARNING FOR ANYONE TEMPTED TO GET INTO SVXY The more money piling into short vol bets, the smaller the crash you need to make the whole thing blow up. This is because of the massive short covering involved. Money is already pouring back in, and will keep doing so as long as it keeps working, until the strategy blows up again. While it isn't a certainty, the risk will only increase as time passes...
showing 50 most recent notes on the Misc forum
Re: XIV and market risk: a warning. +++++
Wednesday, February 14, 2018 @ 21:27
Re: XIV and market risk: a warning. ++++
Wednesday, February 14, 2018 @ 14:00
Reply to: Note 384 posted by Mokg you wrote"you", but you meant to say "people", otherwise y8u did not comprehend the thread. I rarely feel bad at taking advantage of the market because it is so voluntary, unlike a car d3aler swindling his customer to take advantage of them, but I felt a pang on XIV. Because some good people somewhere made some horrible decisions and it was mak8ng me richer. lots of risky things have no prospectus. nothing can save people from themselves except for themselves. BTW, you might be surprised who has played a mud, at least in passing. I look at Facebook and think zuck might have passed through a mud at some point because it was so similar... friend list, photo gallery of players, whois fields for about me, finger fields etc. is it that shocking that one of the top hedge fund managers in America over the past 7 years (32 net annualized) passed through?
Re: XIV and market risk: a warning. +++
Wednesday, February 14, 2018 @ 00:03
Reply to: Note 383 posted by Impurifan should keep those fantasies of yours in your head. anyways you should obviously read the prospectus of something you're investing large amounts of money in. It clearly said it wasn't meant to be held overnight and that over an infinite amount of time it would go bankrupt.
Re: XIV and market risk: a warning. ++
Tuesday, February 13, 2018 @ 23:49
Reply to: Note 382 posted by Sonshi I rounded bc the decimals are irrelevant. I am a risk arb IRL. It was not risk free, because there was some chance the nav was wrong, or pre hedged like SVXY, but yes it was stellar. BTW ibkr required 500 percent risk capital and ran out of borrow around 630 p.m. academics are smart because it's a phenomenal quality of life but they know Jack compared to someone like me. there is simply no substitute for seeing 500 situations across cycles where little details aren't assumed away if they are even recognized at all. I have example after example of stuff like XIV. will probably compile them into a book and self publish to a niche professional audience. 8t might sound cool to have 50 million at age 35, but I will probably not make it to 60 years old due to stress and sed3ntary occupation.
Re: XIV and market risk: a warning. +
Monday, February 12, 2018 @ 22:34
Reply to: Note 381 posted by Impurifan Anyone who noticed before it was too late and could have shorted it made a lot. Few economics professors really teach market efficiency. Any real (Keynesian) economist is well aware of the inefficiencies of the market! It is almost unbelievable how many tens of millions were given away by unfortunate people who were willing to bet large sums but unwilling to do the simplest of calculations or research to figure out what their bets are worth. Looks like it may be time to apply for a margin account so I don't miss the next chance, if it ever comes again while I'm not working. It was basically a riskless short. My version of the saying is that those who teach, do. Those who can't, wind up moving into industry and making multiples of what they would otherwise. It's really easy for a good academic to make lots of money, since the market is so inefficient. This is limited by their general lack of capital, and general lack of attentiveness when something this crazy happens. Until you see it a few times you wouldn't believe that something so incredibly stupid (and profitable for the other side) could happen. I would note that it didn't trade down to 5 the next day, so you couldn't have covered it at 5. One would think you'd remember your trade prices on a day like that... Tsk, the arbitrageurs must have run out of risk to give that day. If only I had a margin account and wasn't at work... Every extra bit of capital short would've caused more convergence and actually saved those poor clueless bidders some money. It was basically like the time the market got bond CTDs wrong except for one firm which had the right calculation, except this is way more obvious.
Re: XIV and market risk: a warning.
Monday, February 12, 2018 @ 20:49
Reply to: Note 380 posted by Sonshi This is the last thing I expected to read on Aardwolf. I made millions the day XIV blew up. Not because I predicted the timing of that inevitability, but because market participants could not believe that something that closed at $99 at the 4 p.m. equity market close could be worth $4 when the vol futures market closed at 4:15. millions and millions of XIV traded at 50,40,30,20,15 after hours. the thing was worth 4. It was a wild example of market inefficiency. I sold short tons of it and covered the next day at 5. All those economics and buffoon professors preaching market efficiency instead of the reality of human beings. Again proving that those that can, do. and those that can't, teach.
XIV and market risk: a warning.
Sunday, February 11, 2018 @ 00:00
The recent crash and loss of life savings by many wannabe traders and "investors" is a lesson for anyone dreaming of get rich quick schemes. There's a saying that if you don't know who the sucker is in the room, it's you. The problem is that too many suckers think they know who the sucker is (not them). Trading on margin is a particularly bad idea if you don't know what you are doing. If you are trading on margin on Robinhood, you don't know what you are doing. If you are trading on margin on most well-known online brokers, you probably don't know what you are doing. If you are trading on Interactive Brokers, you likely don't know what you are doing, but at least they've the best risk controls and most reasonable fees, so you are far less likely to owe 20k to your broker if your positions blow up in your face. (If you have to be stupid, at least be stupid on IBKR.) Generally if you have a cash account and no margin, at least you can't lose more than you put in. If you stick with index tracking ETFs, you won't lose more than the index (plus fees, MM spread, and slippage, which is small for liquid products)... As long as it's an index like stocks or bonds, you can't really do too badly in the long run, unless that country collapses. Just don't get into an "investment" which operates with huge leverage and does a lot of selling low and buying high. Make sure you understand what you are doing... I hope no one here lost too much. If you didn't, these are exciting times for anyone with an interest in economics and/or markets! (This record blowout in short term VIX futures is by far the largest. It may stand as the largest for decades in percentage terms, as such a major short squeeze prompted by billions invested in short vol having to close out in a matter of minutes just days after their usual pattern of selling at close to historical lows might warn people off from such stupidity again. But who knows. Never bet against stupidity happening. The funny thing is that Credit Suisse's product was working exactly as designed, and really... a lot of people saw this coming from a mile off. Just not the timing.)
Re: Working from home ideas?+
Saturday, February 10, 2018 @ 13:15
Reply to: Note 374 posted by Mannec >basically, anything anyone offers you will be bs or scam. Well, only because you worded it that someone else is offering it to you. More on that shortly. >i do know a few folks who do things like tech-support or web development >from home. they had to hunt pretty hard to find employers, tho. Technical fields do have work-at-home opportunities, but legitimate ones will be ones where you seek out the opportunity rather than receiving unsolicited emails telling how much wonderful cash you can make stuffing envelopes and such. Actual employer-based positions for work-at-home are pretty hard to come by off the bat. Usually the ability to work at home for an employer comes after you're already an in-the-office employee, after they trust your work ethic, etc. The main way that work-at-home jobs happen is through freelance sites. If you can program or script, there are sites designed to help bring companies with a need together with people who can fill the need. Check out freelancer.com, fiverr.com, upwork.com, guru.com (or just google freelance coding ;-). Some of those freelance coding sites have a really wide range of jobs, from a 10-minute simple one to pretty heavy complex ones. Because of that, if you're not a top-end coder, you can work your way up and build your portfolio over time. Finally, I've gotta throw in the option for Uber and Lyft if you drive a fairly decent car. It's not "at home", but it's not "in the office" either. Abe
Re: Working from home ideas?+++
Thursday, February 8, 2018 @ 23:54
Reply to: Note 377 posted by Redryn This isn't exactly what you are looking for but I say do what you love and let the rest fall in place. If what you love puts you around computers then you are on a good trajectory for possibly working from home or finding ways to make money from home. My story in a nutshell. 4 years ago I was a former ditch digger and food bringer with a 1 year old kid and a HS degree but I liked computers (thanks MUDs). Just going after something I love led to all this in the last 4 years. Went back to Community College, worked part time at their help desk, moved into a part time job in the eLearning dept, got a full-time gig as their Instructional Technology Specialist, did that for about 3 years, and then got hired by an edtech company (7 year old company in SLC) that is eager to hire from around the world to find the best talent. This type of opportunity is becoming more and more common but in a lot of cases you have to have had yourself out there and be actively promoting yourself for things and asking if they are hiring remotes. So just chase what you love and then just start stepping through doors. [Ixle]
Re: Working from home ideas?++
Wednesday, February 7, 2018 @ 23:23
Reply to: Note 376 posted by Tymme Social media "influencers" seem to have no real job and permanently on holiday, please let me know if you figure out how to get in on that!
Re: Working from home ideas?+
Wednesday, February 7, 2018 @ 23:02
Reply to: Note 374 posted by Mannec > that being said, have you considered prostitution C'mon, that takes at least 30 seconds per client not spent levelling on Aard! Tech support seems like the easiest to do work-from-home, but will usually require some initial investment. Company I work for started offering 32 hrs work-at-home and 8 in office, for those that were a certain level rep. It's not exactly easy to just trust people are gonna work their whole shift, espec newer hires.
re: Working from home ideas?
Wednesday, February 7, 2018 @ 21:06
basically, anything anyone offers you will be bs or scam. i do know a few folks who do things like tech-support or web development from home. they had to hunt pretty hard to find employers, tho. that being said, have you considered prostitution or assassination? i understand both are potentially quite lucrative, and craigslist is easily available from home or anywhere. then again, might need to be willing to travel...
Re: Working from home ideas?
Wednesday, February 7, 2018 @ 21:04
Reply to: Note 373 posted by DjVoltron I know someone who conducts phone interviews for Karat.
Working from home ideas?
Wednesday, February 7, 2018 @ 21:00
Hello Aard peeps! Think I've asked before with limited results, so figured it can't hurt to ask again as mostly all I seem to find are scams and the like. I have been looking to find legit work from home online ventures to earn money with as I'm hoping they aren't ALL scams and bs... if you know of anything like this please let me know. If the info is really good and what I am looking for I am willing to reward the person that enlightens me, we can discuss said reward when the time arrives. :) Questions, comments, tells work, I always respond when I get back if I'm away. Thanks and Happy Aarding! :)
Re: Upcoming trip, suggestion? +++
Tuesday, January 30, 2018 @ 14:00
Reply to: Note 371 posted by Atlanta Perfect. I had seen the airtrains, and I wondered if that was the way to go. Uber itself, I learned, was going to cost me $60, and so I am not down for that. Thankfully, my flight doesn't leave until 1pm, so I'll have about 4-5 hours to figure out where to go when I get there. Google has shown me how to get on either train, too, so I should be good. Leave JFK at 1, arrive in Phoenix at 5, layover for just a bit, then on to California. This will be fun... especially going from snow to above-freezing temperatures. Thanks for all the tips! RDC
Re: Upcoming trip, suggestion? ++
Tuesday, January 30, 2018 @ 09:43
Reply to: Note 370 posted by Myth Just one thing to be aware of with the A train, it serves two different final stops. Some trains go to Rockaway / Far Rockaway (you can get the airtrain riding these trains), but some have their final stop at "ozone park / lefferts blvd" and those trains take a different branch so you can't to the airtrain nearly as easily. The E is a bit better, but the A will work - just make sure you get an A train headed for "Rockaway / Far Rockaway" It'll say which train it is on a display in some train windows and if there's an overhead display on the platform.
Re: Upcoming trip, suggestion? +
Monday, January 29, 2018 @ 20:44
Reply to: Note 369 posted by Impurifan What Impurifan said. Subway+airtrain is your best option. Two lines go to JFK: A and E, both blue, and both go directly from Port Authority Bust Terminal. E train is slightly faster, and goes more often. Expect about 1 hour 30 minutes from the time you board the train till the time you exit airtrain at JFK terminal (add extra 20 minutes if traveling after 10pm).
Re: Upcoming trip, suggestion?
Monday, January 29, 2018 @ 18:07
Reply to: Note 368 posted by Crowley I live in manhattan, but will be out of town. It's all a trade off of time and convenience. If you don't have bags, the subway to airtrain will cost 8 bucks and is easy no matter the time of day. Shuttle is more expensive and can even take longer depending on time of day. Uber is cheaper and nicer than yellow taxi. great if a lot of bags. if ultra penny pinching you can probably do it for 3 bucks on a subway to mta bus that stops there. not worth vs. subway/airtrain.
Upcoming trip, suggestion?
Monday, January 29, 2018 @ 11:29
On Wednesday, I will be flying out of JFK (New York) to go home to visit family. I'll be taking a bus from where I am now to Port Authority, but I'm trying to figure out the cheapest option to go from Port Authority to JFK. I know the Airport Shuttle will cost me $18 one way, but that's all I know. Anyone with experience at this location able to provide me the best option? Should I Uber it, subway it, or just take the shuttle? I suppose the absolute cheapest will be walking, but... yeah, no. Additionally, if anyone actually wants to meet up, I'll be getting into Port Authority around 7am on Wednesday, January 31st. Rex Daemon Crowley
Wednesday, January 24, 2018 @ 08:30
Greetings Im an avid E-book reader via the mobile app called Wattpad. I'm curious if any of you Peep's are into this pastime as well. If so, send me a note or tell with some of your favorite reads. I will exchange mine also Thank you.
Re: RTS recommendations
Sunday, January 14, 2018 @ 05:00
Reply to: Note 364 posted by Escobar Not sure if you heard but new RTS - They are billions. It's about 20 bucks on steam, early access, really fun game.
Re: RTS recommendations
Sunday, January 14, 2018 @ 03:18
Reply to: Note 364 posted by Escobar Civilitazion III is amazing. It has a great diplomacy system and with one of the expansions its even better.
Sunday, January 14, 2018 @ 01:36
Hi! Sorry if this is breaking rules re: other games, I don't think it is but if so, then just remove it :) I've been having an itch to play an RTS so I was wondering, from this list below, which would be a fun one to try out? - Endless Space - Grey Goo - Civ 3 - Civ 5 - Total War: Warhammer I believe that is all that I have. Or if you can recommend a game that's not on this list that's relatively cheap (~$20, I'm saving up for FFXII coming to Steam in February) I'd appreciate it, thanks!
Re: .. ++
Monday, January 8, 2018 @ 10:22
Reply to: Note 362 posted by Cackle my bad, i didn't realise you were working on such a tight schedule
Monday, January 8, 2018 @ 10:19
Reply to: Note 360 posted by Cackle but we need to see that death message every 5min:( it's become an integral part of our day and we might not be able to make it through the day without it
Monday, January 8, 2018 @ 04:43
m : Fiendish: I hope you're having fun :) Forum : Personal - #71704 To : cackle stronger Date : Tue Jan 2 14:41:37 2018 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ | I made a trigger just for you. | When my client sees my PK death message, it does wake, enter, east. I had fun killing him over and over again, he even made a trigger speccialy for me, just so that i can kill him He even joked on Immtalk that his death count will lap over like Erikson time online. Today he said via tells he dont mind getting killed. l BUT i will stop killing him from today, due to other factors. Cackle
Re: Ubisoft giveaway
Friday, December 22, 2017 @ 22:31
Reply to: Note 358 posted by Redryn > and Assassin's Creed IV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOgvbS4GkF0 (warning: language)
Friday, December 22, 2017 @ 22:28
For those who might be interested, ubisoft is giving away Watch Dogs, World in Conflict and Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag for new sign ups until Dec 23 10 am UTC (about 6 hours from this post I believe). https://freetrial.ubisoft.com/
Re: Samsung note 8 or HueWai Mate Pro ??
Friday, December 22, 2017 @ 17:49
Reply to: Note 354 posted by Reina > the Bad is the size.My hand is small. Ya know girl hand gsmarena says the difference between these phones is 0.1 inch (1/3 of a millimeter) - do you think your girl hand will notice that? And note 8 with round edges will likely feel smaller. I'd say the main difference between note 8 and mate 10 is that note 8 has a stylus, which you rarely use, but when you do, it's indispensable. On my note 3, I usually use it in 2 cases: 1) websites optimized for PC, where they have functionality triggered by hovering mouse, and 2) connect to remote PC where you need a mouse-like pointer. In both cases stylus is total must. Since my note 3 unfortunately decided to die last week, I am actually in a similar situation looking for a replacement, and both note 8 and mate 10 are high on my list. But so far I've been more and more inclined to just borrow some old phone from friends, and wait for next year.
Re: Samsung note 8 or HueWai Mate Pro ?? +
Friday, December 22, 2017 @ 15:36
Reply to: Note 355 posted by Norton Just figure out what quality is the most important for you and see which phone offers it with better prize. I went for 1st 1080 screen and got 2x cheaper one than the others asked for. It's that easy.
Re: Samsung note 8 or HueWai Mate Pro ??
Friday, December 22, 2017 @ 15:24
Reply to: Note 354 posted by Reina i know nothing about the huewai phone. but if you're anywhere near sensible, you'll realize that samsung phone have the back button on the wrong side. -n-
Samsung note 8 or HueWai Mate Pro ??
Friday, December 22, 2017 @ 06:06
Choosing smartphone dilemma I just got lost my phone 2 months ago S7 Edge I love it so much thus many of my photo memories inside. :( move fordward. So here my choice i looks out Samsung Galaxy note 8 New technology ,better camera Just that abit too big for me Spen..Sound cool the Bad is the size.My hand is small. Ya know girl hand Huewai Mate 10 pro Size just nice fit to my hand longer Battery Lifespan 4000mAH Technology Camera AI--sound cool Leica Camera Lens seem better then Samsung? Kirin AI Processor is better then samsung? the bad. no Expandable Memory Card Slot At Last which one is better going for a long run?
Re: Fun Cellphone games +
Friday, December 8, 2017 @ 12:03
Reply to: Note 349 posted by Fiendish >I do crossword puzzles on my phone with the Shortyz app. I've always preferred the Crosswords app over Shortyz. But definitely love crosswords in general, and it's one of my idle-time apps. Rex Daemon Crowley
Re: Fun Cellphone games
Thursday, December 7, 2017 @ 12:58
Reply to: Note 348 posted by Jikaimp I do crossword puzzles on my phone with the Shortyz app.
Fun Cellphone games
Thursday, December 7, 2017 @ 10:27
Hey. Looking for a couple of cassual titles mostly to waste a lil time ty oh yeah for 5 or 5.5inch phone
Re: Future Humblebundle updates +++++
Monday, December 4, 2017 @ 17:32
Reply to: Note 344 posted by Noegel I found it spammy but mostly because I know Humble Bundle gives out games and changes their bundles on a regular basis, so I check the website often. If you're really worried, there's always https://www.humblebundle.com/newsletter .
Re: Future Humblebundle updates ++++
Monday, December 4, 2017 @ 15:28
Reply to: Note 343 posted by Lasher I'll be another +1 in support of Crowley. It doesn't seem like a mailing list to me. It's a member of the community sharing sweet deals about free games. The notes are short and don't sound like marketing BS. Flea-ridden Noegel
Re: My favorite love songs
Sunday, December 3, 2017 @ 04:26
Reply to: Note 302 posted by Anaristos Gravity - Sara Bareilles Wait For Me - Theory of a Deadman
Re: Future Humblebundle updates ++
Saturday, December 2, 2017 @ 19:55
Reply to: Note 340 posted by Shala I definitely appreciate the support for these notes. However, when I mentioned that it was suggested, the suggestion came from Lasher. When the big boss suggests something to you, you tend to heed his suggestion. Until he's fine with more notes promoting free game downloads, I'm going to follow his suggestion. Rex Daemon Crowley
Re: Future Humblebundle updates +
Friday, December 1, 2017 @ 16:23
Reply to: Note 336 posted by Tymme Why pay pennies for new, amazing games when you can just visit http://sarien.net/ and play old sierra games via your browser. I recently used it to replay through Police Quest again. It has built in mulitplayer, which cracks me up. Shala
Re: Future Humblebundle updates
Friday, December 1, 2017 @ 16:13
Reply to: Note 335 posted by Crowley > It's been suggested that those interested in future free games from > HumbleBundle probably have already signed up to receive the notifications. If > not, you can do so quickly at... I don't know who complained to you about this, but I wish they hadn't. I would much rather read your posts here than sign up for another email list. I find greater value in these notes, where, even beyond the material content, the message is coming from you, a member of a community who want to share things with each other. - Fiendish
Re: Future Humblebundle updates +
Friday, December 1, 2017 @ 16:10
Reply to: Note 337 posted by Escobar My SO signs up for every food chain and retail perks program. If I'm forced to sign up, I send it to a junk email address I never check. Some people want (or are indifferent about) spam; others don't care for it. Certainly not the first time a board's been full of spam, won't be the last.
Re: Future Humblebundle updates
Friday, December 1, 2017 @ 15:08
Reply to: Note 335 posted by Crowley And what about those that might be new to Aard & haven't heard of humblebundle? What about their children? OH WON'T SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN!! Also, if I'm on and I see the free game I'm posting a note about it. Not gonna lie, I think it's awesome to spread the word about free games in a market where scummy publishers paywall the hell outta their product and force you to spend hundreds to get where you need to in order to "have fun".
Re: Future Humblebundle updates
Friday, December 1, 2017 @ 14:51
Reply to: Note 335 posted by Crowley On the subject of good video game deals, check out https://chrono.gg/ as well. It has a different game each day, usually a lesser-known title, for pretty deep discounts (usually 70-80% off). It also has a system where you log in once a day to see the new deal, and get some coins that can be used to "buy" other games. Most are smaller indie titles, but there are some like Reigns, Five Finger Death Punch, Tower of Guns, and Cook Serve Delicious to name a few.
Future Humblebundle updates
Friday, December 1, 2017 @ 14:19
It's been suggested that those interested in future free games from HumbleBundle probably have already signed up to receive the notifications. If not, you can do so quickly at http://www.humblebundle.com. Additionally, Origin has its own free game offers on their site, http://www.origin.com. Origin's games are under the "On The House" option. I will not be posting future free game notifications, and no one should post in my stead. But definitely watch for them. HumbleBundle is pretty nice to get into, as well, since you can get hundreds of dollars' worth for very little cost. Rex Daemon Crowley
The Bureau: XCOM Declassifed, Free on Humblebundle!
Thursday, November 30, 2017 @ 18:25
Subject says it all. Free for a limited time, so pick it up quickly! http://www.humblebundle.com/store @ Rex Daemon Crowley
Prayers for a very sick friend
Tuesday, November 28, 2017 @ 23:45
One of my friends from church is in the hospital in need of a pair of lungs. He needs both his lungs replaced. Send good vibes if thats your thing. and for those of yous who pray, please carry him in your hearts and minds. thank you all for listening and have a nice day. Kloi/igamu
Re: My favorite love songs
Friday, November 24, 2017 @ 16:02
Reply to: Note 302 posted by Anaristos youtu.be/omA8A7MELHA
Sanctum 2, free on HumbleBundle.
Thursday, November 23, 2017 @ 19:56
Get it while it lasts! Sanctum 2 is free for the next day and a half on HumbleBundle.com. Enjoy, and Happy Thanksgiving@ Rex Daemon Crowley
Re: My favorite love songs +++
Wednesday, November 22, 2017 @ 17:38
Reply to: Note 305 posted by Vost wow, I was going to suggest Runaway by The Corrs but Vost already did. Big shout out for a song that has rarely been played on the radio.